Today's Summary, April 20th, 2026.

Macro The dominant story overnight is the Strait of Hormuz, and if you slept through it, buckle up. For the third consecutive day, the strait is effectively empty: only three vessels have passed in recent hours, two of them empty tankers, with 13 ships turned back on Saturday alone. Iran has refused to attend the next round of talks in Islamabad, citing US ceasefire violations and refusing to accept deadlines or ultimatums. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged more than 7% in Asian markets on the back of the deteriorating situation. The critical distinction the market hasn't fully priced: container ships can reroute, but a million barrels of crude simply cannot get out at any price. Iran is now facing a self-inflicted crisis, with 10 to 15 days before it must begin shutting down its own oil fields as storage fills. An armada of 171 tankers is reportedly headed to the US to purchase roughly 200 million barrels from the Strategic Reserve. Someone also appears to be positioning ahead of this: a $20 million oil long was opened ahead of key peace negotiations, following a pattern that previously netted $5 million in 30 minutes. Worth watching.